Bayesian sample size determination for phase IIA clinical trials using historical data and semi‐parametric prior's elicitation

The Simon's two‐stage design is the most commonly applied among multi‐stage designs in phase IIA clinical trials. It combines the sample sizes at the two stages in order to minimize either the expected or the maximum sample size. When the uncertainty about pre‐trial beliefs on the expected or desired response rate is high, a Bayesian alternative should be considered since it allows to deal with the entire distribution of the parameter of interest in a more natural way. In this setting, a crucial issue is how to construct a distribution from the available summaries to use as a clinical prior in a Bayesian design. In this work, we explore the Bayesian counterparts of the Simon's two‐stage design based on the predictive version of the single threshold design. This design requires specifying two prior distributions: the analysis prior, which is used to compute the posterior probabilities, and the design prior, which is employed to obtain the prior predictive distribution. While the usual approach is to build beta priors for carrying out a conjugate analysis, we derived both the analysis and the design distributions through linear combinations of B‐splines. The motivating example is the planning of the phase IIA two‐stage trial on anti‐HER2 DNA vaccine in breast cancer, where initial beliefs formed from elicited experts' opinions and historical data showed a high level of uncertainty. In a sample size determination problem, the impact of different priors is evaluated.     

我国冰雪体育旅游现状及发展策略探究

随着北京-张家界申办2022年冬季奥运会的成功，冰雪体育旅游迅速成为了当今最受关注的热门产业之一。如果能抓住这次发展机遇，大力开展冰雪体育旅游项目，可以为当地旅游业的发展创造极大的收益，与此同时还能提升我国冰雪体育旅游层次。通过阐述我国冰雪体育旅游的发现现状，对其中存在的问题和面临的挑战进行分析，结合实际情况提出冰雪体育旅游的发展对策。     

中国民营企业家的伦理领导行为:内涵结构与量表开发

文章以中国民营企业家为研究对象，采用跨案例分析法探讨企业家伦理领导行为的内涵结构及特征，并在此基础上开发具有中国情境特点的民营企业家伦理领导行为量表。研究结果显示：受中国儒家伦理文化影响，中国民营企业家伦理领导行为包括"德性修养""集体动机"和"天下情怀"三个维度；企业家的伦理领导行为表现为"修己安人"的关系内涵，企业家自身不仅践行着较高的伦理道德标准，且将之扩展至对员工、组织行为的引导和规范；本研究开发的中国民营企业家伦理领导行为量表具有良好的信度和效度。文章丰富了西方伦理型领导理论和高阶理论研究，对中国本土企业家如何提高领导力有着重要启示。     

Shaved heads and sonnenrads: comparing white supremacist skinheads and the alt-right in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

This article looks at two periods in the history of white supremacy in New Zealand: the short-lived explosion of skinhead groups in the 1990s, and the contemporary rise of the internet-driven alt-right. It looks at the similarities and differences between the two groups, looking at style, symbols, ideology, and behaviour. It looks at the history of these two movements in New Zealand and compares the economic and social factors that contributed to their rise, in particular how the different social class of members produced groups with near-identical ideology but radically different presentation and modes of action.     

A global meaning of supply chain social sustainability

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to help reduce tensions in supply chain social sustainability (SCSS) decisions by providing a common global, contextual definition of social sustainability. This exploratory study utilised an inductive structured interview method to capture SCSS concept meanings. Those interviewed are from, have lived, and worked in developed economies, emerging economies and the base of the pyramid (BOP) economies. The results present a new global baseline definition of SCSS to inform theory and practice by finding that SCSS meanings differ not only between the different levels of economic development, but also within the levels as well. Culture, community and whether basic human needs are met all weigh into perspectives of what this concept is and should entail; a broad, contingent definition is most appropriate moving forward for sustainability planning and execution. Further research with stakeholders in more countries and communities is needed to validate our proposal.     

HRD research and practice after ‘The Great COVID-19 Pause’: the time is now for bold,critical, research

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted life as we knew it and created an unprecedented opportunity to pause and assess ‘normal’ life and work. We have an opportunity to create a new ‘normal.’ What possibility does the chance to show up differently in our lives and work hold? The pandemic has caused significant shifts in values that will affect individuals, organizations, communities, and nations. This article challenges HRD scholars and practitioners to imagine how HRD might create a new normal through bold, critical research inquiry that interrogates exclusion, pursues organization and social justice, and creates humanly sustainable organizations and communities.     

The effects of pre-IPO corporate activity on newly-public firms' growth

We investigate firms' pre-IPO corporate activity. We find that firms involved in extraordinary – i.e., beyond momentum – amounts of acquisitions, JVs, and alliances in the year leading up to their IPOs (1) are more likely to engage in post-IPO corporate activity; and (2) enter into their first post-IPO transaction twice as fast as other firms. Our results indicate that signaling via extraordinary corporate activity can have a significant effect on entrepreneurial firms’ growth. The implications are discussed.     

Measuring long‐term trends in policy coherence for development

This article measures long term trends in policy coherence for development. Based on result chains, it develops a counterfactual methodology, and then applies it to assess changes in inputs, outputs and outcomes over time. While the literature does not indicate any significant change in policy coherence for development over the last decade, this research finds that, if the time scale is lengthened to 50 years, an overall increase in policy coherence for development of the Dutch government, vis‐à‐vis the DR Congo, in the domains of finance and security, can be detected. These changes in policy coherence for development inputs seem to have contributed, in conjunction with similar policies from other countries, in some instances, to positive outcomes in the DRC.     

LGBTQI-identified human rights defenders: courage in the face of adversity at the United Nations

The role of LGBTQI human rights defenders in the international arena at the United Nations (UN) is a particularly risky and insecure one, especially for those who themselves identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual, transgender, two spirit, queer, and intersex (LGBTQI). This article focuses on the anecdotal experiences of LGBTQI-identified human rights defenders and their work at the UN, observed and noted during a research study examining the degree of recognition and legitimacy LGBTQIs have at the UN. Much courage is required on the part of LGBTQI-identified human rights defenders who, while defending others in their communities, themselves face opposition from those within the UN who hold traditional, religious, and culturally based values, as well as a result of state sovereignty and state-sanctioned criminalisation of their gender and sexual diversity.     

贵州黔南州传统民族特色村寨保护与开发利用研究

贵州省黔南州布依族苗族乡村聚居区在传统民族特色村寨保护与开发利用工作中取得了较大的成效，积累了大量的成功经验，但也存在一些问题及不足：民族特色村寨保护与开发意义的认知有待提升；政府对民族特色村寨保护与开发利用的刚性规划缺失；开发的民族特色村寨功能单一；黔南少数民族传统特色文化的总体情况呈现复兴、衰退和变异并存；民族特色文化精品的培育顶层支撑不足；民族特色村寨开发与传统民族文化融合度不够；对传统特色老旧民宅价值认识不足。针对以上问题，首先应着力提升黔南州民族特色村寨保护开发格局，争取纳入国家改革试验规划；其二，抓住大数据与智慧乡村建设的时机，率先推进民族地区乡村治理现代化示范；其三，创新投融资体制机制，构建“民族特色村寨资源资本化金融服务平台”；其四，探索乡村房屋租赁权跨区域流通的体制机制，不断提升农民的物权收益；其五，加大民族特色村寨品牌建设力度，增加特色村寨旅游产品附加值；其六，完善村寨文化资源资产化经营监管体系，构建村寨文化资源保护利用长效机制。